Even high oil prices can be a two-edged sword for producers, since high costs can inspire consumers to search for other sources of power. High prices can prompt the development of energy-efficient technology. Alternative sources of fuel like natural gas or renewable energy are also eating into the demand for oil. Since a large portion of oil is consumed by vehicles, technological developments such as electric cars or hybrids play a role in demand as well.
The signs of decreasing demand have begun to appear in the past few years, Williams-Derry says. And the COVID pandemic has only accelerated this drop in demand as the past year has seen a significant decrease in the numbers of cars on the road. What happens next is difficult to forecast. Register or Log In. The Magazine Shop. Login Register Stay Curious Subscribe. Planet Earth. Newsletter Sign up for our email newsletter for the latest science news.
Sign Up. Naturally, the question arises: h ow long before we run out? In the s, geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that the world will experience an economically damaging scarcity of fossil fuels. This idea has remained in the collective consciousness as the Peak Oil theory, according to which the production of oil, as a finite resource, will peak at some point and ultimately decline and deplete.
According to some researchers, Hubbert included, Peak Oil is already behind us, and we are now living in a decline. So, how long before we run out of fossil fuels? At the current rates of production, oil will run out in 53 years, natural gas in 54, and coal in Join the ZME newsletter for amazing science news, features, and exclusive scoops. More than 40, subscribers can't be wrong. Other researchers, organizations, and governments have different deadlines for fossil fuel exhaustion, depending on the data and assumptions that they make, as well as political affiliation and interests.
While we know for sure that the exploitation of fossil fuels is limited, estimates can vary wildly because new deposits are sometimes found and new technology enables access to previously untapped oil or gas fie lds or allows more efficient extraction. So, the challenge in estimating a timescale for fossil fuel depletion lies in the fact that new resources are added fairly regularly.
Before this gradual downfall begins, however, we'll reach a point known as peak oil. Imagine a carafe filled with coffee. Imagine pouring cup after cup without effort until the stream of java begins to trickle. Eventually you even have to severely tilt the carafe in order to drain the dredges. Peak oil is that last full and flowing cup before the final decline begins.
Demand continues to grow, while the Earth's nonrenewable oil reserves dwindle. Individual nations have already reached peak oil. As global oil production appears to have plateaued in , some analysts say the world has already peaked.
Other estimates are far less severe. CERA predicted that global oil production would hit a decades-long "undulating plateau" around the middle of the 21st century. What happens after peak oil? The worst-case oil crash predictions involve soaring gas prices, the end of globalization, widespread anarchy and the relentless exploitation of previously protected drilling sites.
More optimistic views of this inevitable post-peak world involve a lot more preparation. Basically, the impact of oil shortages can be lessened by decreasing our reliance on fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources and renewable biofuels play a crucial role in these outlooks. Some commentators even go so far as to see eventual oil shortfalls as a stabilizing factor in world politics [source: Drezner]. The writing is on the wall.
Global oil supply can't meet global oil demand forever, necessitating new energy sources and usage practices. Even if technology allowed us to harvest every last drop of oil in the planet, increasing scarcity and rising prices would necessitate widespread change long before we actually ran out of oil.
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